Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 26.601827 31.708420 37.296101 43.833973 51.242533 59.345896 68.847237
2025-07-27 19.628660 26.514642 34.772258 45.270121 58.117541 73.182283 92.025501
2025-08-03 15.528292 23.181126 33.037581 46.370851 63.618741 84.847886 112.587990
2025-08-10 12.160688 19.909235 30.554014 45.756868 66.370844 92.780773 128.532527
2025-08-17 10.026180 17.839755 29.203920 46.208619 70.192455 101.945998 146.172426
2025-08-24 8.224123 15.878232 27.638551 46.021813 72.903571 109.561608 161.922986
2025-08-31 6.510904 13.701390 25.394925 44.496873 73.443173 114.064700 173.503726
2025-09-07 5.590927 12.673656 24.759632 45.235157 77.173233 123.031530 191.422076
2025-09-14 4.545024 11.198887 23.170589 44.263447 78.185555 128.069043 203.935520
2025-09-21 3.995488 10.560766 22.901592 45.345415 82.328562 137.742280 223.313912
2025-09-28 3.135585 9.092683 20.943161 43.378564 81.484617 139.912107 231.827947
2025-10-05 2.829347 8.761542 21.036665 44.920502 86.318841 150.771225 253.408589
2025-10-12 2.463294 8.256400 20.816306 46.044249 90.803157 161.707051 276.180284
2025-10-19 2.169404 7.863845 20.781870 47.527227 96.027778 174.107565 301.773376
2025-10-26 1.889197 7.428518 20.587807 48.670134 100.705392 185.804333 326.665639
2025-11-02 1.529262 6.654761 19.534751 48.032214 102.192888 192.404388 343.859490
2025-11-09 1.297282 6.182168 19.076162 48.501542 105.636018 202.267621 366.418639
2025-11-16 1.067906 5.631076 18.337472 48.307470 107.823877 210.099566 385.960842
2025-11-23 0.818683 4.896719 17.011349 46.722981 107.293432 213.307685 398.145770
2025-11-30 0.702841 4.615142 16.792045 47.490148 111.222984 224.190624 423.031076
2025-12-07 0.548269 4.090827 15.822673 46.480400 111.640541 229.014432 438.111280
2025-12-14 0.479123 3.915391 15.794748 47.604712 116.286384 241.336818 465.888205
2025-12-21 0.347256 3.338512 14.476824 45.560720 114.462933 242.160912 474.486867